基于GM(1,N)的小城镇协调发展综合评价模型及其应用

The Overall Assessment Model and Its Application of Coordinated Development in Small Cities and Towns based on GM(1,N)

小城镇作为社会、经济、资源与环境的复合生态系统,其协调发展是一个多复杂因素组成的动态过程,在这个过程中,各子系统的发展状态及其相互关系是影响到小城镇协调发展的关键问题。在本文分析小城镇协调发展过程基础上,借助GM(1,N)模型和多元统计分析,以各子系统以及整个小城镇的发展是否趋于协调为标准,建立了小城镇协调发展综合评价模型。然后,利用该模型对浙江省东阳市横店镇以及其他几个国家可持续发展实验区(孟庄镇、毛集镇、清溪镇、邱隘镇)在1993年～2001年间的协调发展趋势进行分析,结果表明,这些城镇在1993年～2001年期间的发展协调性虽然具有一定的波动,但整体趋势是不断趋于协调的,这与国家成立可持续发展实验区以后的各小城镇的实际发展状况是相一致的,结果也证明了模型的有效性。

A small city or town is a composite ecosystem of society, economy, resources and environment, the coordinated development of which is a dynamic process involving multiple complicated factors. In this process, the key influencing factors are the development state and the inter-relationship of the four subsystems. The majority of existing evaluation models do not perform well in small cities and towns of China. There are two reasons. First, it is difficult to evaluate the coordinated development of small cities and towns with a set of standards, because such development is a dynamic evolution process, whose state changes through time. Second,, the coordinated development of small cities and towns, which are composite ecosystems, involves not only the coordination of each subsystem, but also that of the entire system. Based on the analysis of gray characteristics of coordinated development of small cities and towns, a （1, N）-based comprehensive Grey Model, is established to evaluate the coordinated development of small cities and towns according to the evaluation standards. For example, the coordinated development of the subsystems as well as the entire small cities or towns is evaluated. The development of one subsystem can stimulate the development another under a coordinated condition, so it can be concluded that there is a relative development among those subsystems to a certain degree. In this way, the coordination degree of the subsystems is described. Moreover, the evaluation model is applied in the case study of Hengdian Town （a small town in Zhejiang Province of China） as well as several other national sustainable development experimental units （Mengzhuang Town, Maoji Town, Qingxi Town, Qiuai Town）. The results indicate that the coordinated development of these town has an upward tendency, To specify, the coordinated development trend of these small towns in 1993-2001 is evaluated by the model and the results show that each town has developed in a coordinated way with slight fluctuations during this period. Since the establishment of these experimental zones in 1993, adjustment to the development modes has been made to meet the demand of the sustainable development. Therefore, the development trend is coordinated in the long run; thought there is incoordination in terms of a short period or static sense. This conclusion is in accordance with the actual development state of these small towns, thereby demonstrating the practicability of the model. According to the modeling process, it can be concluded that the model can be used to describe the trend of coordination with a satisfactory coordination value, which is significantly relevant to time. An increasing coordinated value will indicate coordinated development in a small city or town irrespective to its absolute value.