美国经济会陷入长期衰退吗?——马克思主义视角以及与日本20世纪90年代的比较

Will U.S.Run into a Long Term Recession?

自美国经济陷入衰退以来,很多学者从不同角度对美国经济前景进行了分析。目前大致有三种判断:即V型、U型和L型走势。但这些研究绝大多数采用西方经济学的研究方法。本文从马克思主义经济学的视角,通过对美国历史数据分析,并与20世纪90年代日本经济陷入长期衰退时的情况进行比较,结论是美国经济呈U型走势的可能性很小,也不大可能呈现L型走势。

Since running into recession, many economists analyses the prospect of the U.S. economy. Now there are three viewpoints about the route： V-shape, U-shape, and L-shape. These viewpoints are based on the western economics methods. Based on the Marxism economics methods, an analysis of the time series of U.S. economic indicators, and comparing with the condition of Japan＇ s ＂lost decade＂ , this paper holds that U.S. economy will run along a U-shape recovery, there is a little possibility that U.S. economy will run along a V-shape or L-shape recovery.