俄罗斯2030年前天然气行业发展总体纲要概述

Overview: the Russian general scheme of gas sector development until 2030

《俄罗斯2030年前天然气行业发展总体纲要》是俄罗斯天然气领域第一个全国性的行业发展纲要,对俄罗斯天然气工业的发展现状和未来发展方向进行了详尽描述。《纲要》预测2030年俄罗斯国内天然气需求量比2007年高出17%～33%,约为4910亿～5550亿立方米;出口天然气需求约为4150亿～4410亿立方米。2030年俄罗斯国内天然气产量为8760亿～9810亿立方米;向俄罗斯供应的中亚天然气为700亿立方米/年左右。预计2008-2030年,俄罗斯天然气行业的投资将达到13.9万亿～16.6万亿卢布(约5687.7亿～6792.5亿美元)。《纲要》明确了萨哈林开采中心是向亚太地区出口天然气的主要资源基地,从2015年开始从俄东部地区向亚太地区供应天然气(90亿立方米/年),计划到2020年实现大规模供气(250亿～500亿立方米/年)。向中国供气的西线方案基本被否决。中国引进俄罗斯天然气需要随时关注Gazprom在俄东部地区的项目进展情况。

' The Russian general scheme of gas sector development until 2030', the first industry development report to provide a nationwide overview of Russia’s natural gas sector, offers a detailed look at the industry’s current state and projected future. The 'Scheme' projects that by 2030, domestic demand for natural gas in Russia will have risen to about 491–555 bcm, 17 to 30 percent higher than in 2007, and the nation will be exporting an estimated 415–441 bcm of natural gas. Russian natural gas production in 2030 is expected to total between 876 and 981 bcm, with around 70 bcm supplied from Central Asia. Between 2008 and 2030, Russian investment in the natural gas industry is projected to reach RUB 13.9–16.6 trillion (about US $568.77–679.25 billion). As the 'Scheme' illustrates, natural gas exports to the Asia-Pacific region will come mainly from the Sakhalin area. Gas is scheduled to begin flowing from eastern Russia to Asia-Pacific in 2015 (9 bcm/year), and by 2020 this will be on a large-scale basis (25–50 bcm/year). Plans for a western line supplying gas to China have essentially been vetoed. If China is to bring in Russian natural gas, it will be necessary to keep a close eye on Gazprom projects in eastern Russia.