中国制造业集聚强度与显著性——基于方差假设检验

The Agglomeration Intensity and Significance of China's Manufacture:a Sampling Test based on Variance Hypothesis

国内学术界对我国制造业集聚进行了大量统计研究,但我国制造业集聚的显著性尚未得到检验,集聚强度也未得到分级。本文以1995年的800个样本和2004年的860个样本分别对我国28个制造业集聚进行方差假设检验,结果发现,仅有4个东部省(直辖市)的制造业和4个制造业行业集聚显著。进一步发现,高端制造业集聚强度在增强,而低端制造业集聚强度在下降,制造业集聚强度从东部至西部呈递减趋势。同时,中西部制造业集聚强度在下降。两极分化的制造业集聚扩大了东部与中西部发展差距,因此,努力调节制造业区域分布,有效促进中西部制造业集聚是缩小区域差距的重要途径。

In spite of the fact that the community of domestic scholars has made a large number of statistical studies on the agglomeration of China＇s manufactures, the significance of agglomeration has not been tested and the strength of agglomeration has not been graded yet. In this paper,we carry out the variance hypothesis test on 28 China＇s manufactures,which have 800 samples in 1995 and 860 samples in 2004. Our results identify the significance of agglomeration in manufactures of four eastern provinces,and also in four manufactures of the whole country. Further research finds that, the agglomeration intensity of the high-end manufactures is strengthened, but the low-end ones drop. Our empirics also show that the agglomeration intensity of manufacture decrease from the east to west, and the intensity of the mid-west drops. The diverging agglomeration enlarges the gap between the east and mid-west, so it is an import approach for us to adjust manufacture＇s regional distribution and to further the agglomeration of mid-west manufactures in order to narrow regional gaps.