安徽省土地利用格局演变及其预测研究

Evolution and Prediction of Landuse Pattern in Anhui Province

以1996—2005年安徽省土地利用变更数据为基础资料,采用景观生态学结构定量分析方法对该省土地利用格局演变进行了分析。结果表明,安徽省土地利用多样性和均匀度呈增强趋势,优势度则呈减弱趋势。并运用NOSA的典型相关分析进行了土地利用格局演变驱动机制研究,借助GKSIM模型对土地利用格局演变趋势进行了预测分析。结果表明,到2020年,安徽省耕地、园地、牧草地、水域、未利用地面积将减少,而林地、居民点工矿用地、交通用地呈上升趋势,土地利用变化速度减小。该研究结果对安徽省优化土地资源配置,促进土地资源合理利用具有现实意义,也可为土地利用总体规划修编和土地利用政策的制定提供参考。

Based on the data from landuse change survey in Anhui Province from 1996 to 2005, the evolution of landuse pattern in the province is studied using structural quantitative analysis methods of landscape ecolo- gy. It is found that the diversity and evenness of landuse show an upward trend and the dominance shows a downward trend. The drive mechanisms of the evolution of landuse pattern are studied by means of canonical correlation analysis of NOSA and the trend of evolution of landuse pattern is predicted using GKSIM model. Results show that by 2020, the areas of cultivated land, garden land, grass land, water surface, and unutilized land will decrease, but forest land, housing, industrial and mineral land, as well as land for traffic will increase; and the rate of landuse change will decrease. The study is significant for the optimization of land resource allocation and the rational use of land resources and gives references for landuse plan and landuse policy making.