摘要
费用风险分析是武器装备体系演化仿真分析的重要环节。在武器装备体系演化仿真框架基础上提出了基于投资组合分析理论的体系演化费用风险分析方法,建立了基于军事价值实现期望值向量的投资风险分析模型,讨论了该模型的多目标优化途径;提出了"军事价值实现程度"的概念作为投资方案的效益描述,并通过实验设计与实例分析说明了方法的可行性和有效性。
Capital - risk analysis is one of the most important contents in the evolution simulation analysis of armament system of systems. In this paper, a capital - risk analysis approach based on portfolio theory was proposed for the evolution simulation architecture of the armament system of systems. Firstly, the mean - variance （MV） model based on military value vector was set up, and the multiple objective optimization method was discussed. Secondly, the concept of ＂military value achieving degree＂ was brought forward as the benefit of a portfolio. Finally, a simulation experiment was designed to illustrate the feasibility and effectiveness of the approach.
出处
《计算机仿真》
CSCD
北大核心
2009年第7期19-22,共4页
Computer Simulation
