榆林地区农田开发与粮食增产回归分析及潜力研究

Regression Analysis and Potentials of Farmland Development and Crop Yield of Yulin Prefecture

陕西榆林地区１２个县，均为黄河流域水土流失重点县和贫困县，建国以来修水地、坝地、梯田３７．８万ｈｍ２，占粮田总面积６０％。该文采用回归分析方法，求出大田面积与大田作物单产的回归系数为４３．９，即每修１万ｈｍ２“三田”的增产效益相当于粮田总面积每１ｈｍ２增产４３．９ｋｇ。３５ａ来“三田”总增产为７２６．６万ｔ，其相关系数０．９９５５，为极显著正相关。１９９６年农民人均占有粮４４４ｋｇ，比１９４９年人均１５０．５ｋｇ增加１．９５倍。榆林北部风沙区水地和粮食产量的开发潜力很大，可以新开辟井灌水地１３．４万ｈｍ２，通过电脑预测，至２０１０年全地区粮食总产可达１８７万ｔ，人均占粮为５２１ｋｇ，具有很大的可持续性发展潜力。

All the 12 counties in Yulin prefecture of Shaanxi province are poor and severely eroded in the Yellow river basin.Since the new China founded, there has been 378 000 ha of irrigated land,soilsaving dam land and terraced land(called“three lands”for short) constructed, which consists of 60% of the total farmland.A regression coefficient of 43.9 of field crop yield to“three lands” area has been drawn by regression analysis,that means the yield of the total farmland increased by 43.9 kg/ha with an increment of each 10 000 ha of “three lands”.For the 35 years,“three lands” increased by 906 500 ton of food,and the relevant coefficient is 0.995 5, being doubly marked and positively interrelated.Per capita food of villagers was 444 kg in 1996, increased by 1.95 times comparing to that of 150.5 kg in 1949.The sandy area of northern Yulin holds a great potential in developing irrigated land and food production,and 134 000 ha of land can be opened up for wellirrigated farmland.It is predicted that the total food production can reach 1 870 000 ton, and there will be 521 kg food per capita by 2010.