中国货币政策操作绩效的实证检验

Empirical Test of the Effect of China's Monetary Policy

本文利用Logit、Probit法对中国的数据进行经验实证,对中国货币政策操作绩效问题进行了初步探索。本文认为,货币政策目标函数常常表现出非线性特征;从货币政策目标的实现程度判断,中国货币政策较为有效。相比之下,调控m0更有利于稳定物价,调控利率促进经济增长效果更好。

This thesis experientially testifies China＇s data by use of Logit,Probit methods,and then elementarily studies the issue of moneytary policy effect.Based on statistical examination, it concludes that the function of monetary policy objective was always non-linear,and China＇s monetary policy was relatively effctive if judged by the gap between its achievement and expectation.This thesis also finds out that M0 was more effective to stablize price, and interest rate is more effective in promote economic growth.