结构改革与中国工业增长

Structural Reform and Industrial Growth in China

1978年以来,中国工业在持续的结构改革中经历了强劲的增长和生产率水平的不断提高。本文估算了工业分行业随机前沿生产函数,发现1992年后,TFP增长超过了要素投入增长,但是TFP对工业增长的贡献在2001年后出现了下降。进一步对TFP增长分解后发现,由工业结构改革引致的行业间要素重置显然对改革开放期间中国工业生产率的提高乃至工业增长起到了实际推动作用,即结构红利是显著存在的,而2001年后要素配置效率的下降也成为同期TFP增长贡献份额下降的主要原因。因素回归分析显示,中国要素市场的改革和工业行业的结构调整主导了要素配置效率变化的总体走势,并造成了不同行业要素配置效率的显著差异。

China＇ s industry has experienced robust growth under persistent structural reform since 1978. By estimating the stochastic frontier function, we find that the averaod TFP growth has exceeded the quantitative growth of inputs since 1992, but the contribution of productivity to output growth declines after 2001. Using a decomposition technique, we then find that the effect of factor reallocation due to structural reform, sometimes referred to as structural bonus, has contributed to TFP growth substantially, but it too declines over time. Empirical analysis reveals that reforms in factor markets and industrial structure significantly account for the overall trend and the sectoral heterogeneity of structural bonus during the industrialization process.