政府政策对农业资金投入的结构性影响:政策、风险偏好与预期——以云南省样本乡村为例

Structural Influences of Governmental Policy upon Agricultural Investment: Policy, Risk Preference and Expectation

根据在云南省华宁县样本乡村的实际调查和访谈资料,以基于资产组合理论的模型为基础,对近些年影响农民农业生产资金投入的主要因素进行了VAR模型计量分析。研究发现,农业税减免政策对农业生产的积极作用主要是通过改变农民对农业生产的风险偏好、使其决策更加理性化的途径,而并不是通过直接减少农民农业生产负担来实现的。这表明政府出台的能够给予农民持续的乐观、确定性预期的政策将有更持久的积极作用。

Based on an on-the-spot investigation in the sample village of Huaning County of Yunnan Province, this paper conducts a VAR-bascd metric analysis of the main factors affecting agricultural investment direction according to the Portfolio Theory. The author finds that the tax reducing/absolution policy may help improve farmer＇ s agricultural investment by changing farmer＇ s risk preference or expectation, instead of reducing their production cost, which means that in such a context farmers need policies that may bring them a sustainable optimistic and deterministic forecast.