基于VAR模型下农业产业结构调整对农民增收的影响

The Effect of Agricultural Industrial Construction Adjustment on Farmers' Income Based on the VAR Model

以1983-2007年《江西统计年鉴》的农业总产值和农民纯收入为统计分析数据,运用计量经济的向量自回归(VAR)方法,从种植业、林业、牧业、渔业等几方面分析了宜春市农业各产业产值间对农民纯收入的影响。结果表明:宜春市农业总产值不是形成农民收入增长的关键因素。从长期来看,牧业产值对农民纯收入的影响因素最大,为32.36%;其次是渔业产值,为31.65%;第三是种植业产值为20.54%。另外,林业产值对农民纯收入的影响为9.67%。即牧业的发展对农民增收的贡献最大,其次是渔业、种植业。说明,牧业是宜春市未来农业产业结构调整的重点。

The data of agricultural gross output value and farmers＇ net income in Jiangxi province from 1983 to 2007 were analyzed by the VAR method to study the effect of farming, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery on farmers＇ net income in Yichun city. The results showed that the agricultural gross output value was not a key factor to increase farmers＇ net income, and the contribution rate of output value of animal husbandry, fishery, farming and forestry to increase farmers, net income was 32. 36%, 31. 65%, 20. 54% and 9. 67% respectively. Therefore, animal husbandry will be an important adjustment industry in agricultural industrial construction adjustment in Yichun city in future.