基于能源强度变化释析的我国节能目标实现构想

Conception of achieving the objective of energy-saving based on the explanation and analysis of the changes in energy intensity

能源强度是一个国家能源利用效率的重要指标。在日趋严峻的能源供求状态下,通过降低能源强度实现节能目标是我国现代化建设的必然选择。"九五"时期我国已提出经济增长方式转变并为此而努力,然而,检视十多年我国能源强度的变化态势,高速的经济增长不仅拉动了对能源消费的需求,而且使能源强度有上升的趋势,中国经济越来越逼近资源与环境条件的约束边界。本文通过对"九五"、"十五"能源强度变化的定量与定性分析,探讨"十一五"节能目标实现的可能性与可行性,并从技术、制度与管理创新的联动上进行理论描述。

Energy intensity is an important index to measure the efficiency of energy use of a nation. Considering increasingly severe energy supply and demand, it is necessary to achieve the objective of energy - saving by lowering energy intensity in order to realize China＇s modernization construction. During the period of ＂the ninth five -year plan＂, China had put forward the trans- formation of the economic growth pattern and paid efforts. However, when we review the trend of the changes in China＇s intensity for more than a decade, we find that rapid economic growth not only pulls the demand for energy consumption but also pushes the energy intensity to rise, and that China＇ s economy is more and more close to the constraint boundary of the resource and environment conditions. Through the quantitative and qualitative analysis on the changes in energy intensity during the periods of ＂the ninth five - year plan＂ and ＂the tenth five - year plan＂, this article discusses the possibility and feasibility of achieving the objective of energy - saving in the ＂eleventh five - year plan＂, and makes theoretical description from the perspective of the interaction of technology, institution and management innovation.