新疆玛纳斯县生态经济系统的能值分析及其可持续性评估

Emergy Evaluation and Assessment of Sustainability on the Eco-Economic System of Manas County in Xinjiang

文章运用H.T.Odum的能值理论和方法,系统化、定量化分析评估了目前玛纳斯县农林牧草业生态经济系统的能量流动,分析了玛纳斯县近10年来的农牧业发展状况,提出了结构调整的必要性。研究结果表明:玛纳斯县1997～2006年间,农牧业系统的净能值产出率呈不稳定趋势,环境负载率呈不断升高的趋势,说明其农牧业生产的环境压力不断增大,目前发展的可持续性较差,玛纳斯县农牧业系统的畜产品产出能值有较大的提高,人工草地种植面积虽逐年扩大,但存在严重的草畜不平衡矛盾,建议农业结构的调整必须与生态环境建设结合起来,形成以水定草,以草定畜为中心的战略调整,加强政府的宏观调控和管理水平。

This dissertation apply emergy methodologies including systematic and quantitative analysis of energy flow of ecological and economic system to evaluate cropping-grazing development of Manas County over the past 10 years, in order to testify the necessity of structural adjustment. The results showed that over the past decade, emergy yield ratio of system in Manas County was fluctuate. The steady increased of environmental load ratio declared that the increasing of environmental pressure and lower sustainability. Emergy output of livestock was greatly improved, and artificial grassland was increased year after year, but serious imbalance between artificial grassland and livestock still existed, We suggested that the agricultural structure adjustment should link to the ecological construction, at the same time the government should reinforce the macro control and management for the development of the animal husbandry of which the water and artificial grassland was as the center.