我国财政支农的影响因素分析

Empirical Study on Factors Influencing Agricultural Fiscal Expenditure in China

本文的计量研究发现:学者呼吁、三农代表呼声和财政总支出增加对财政支农支出的增加具有显著的促进作用;而人均粮食产量的提升和农村-城市居民收入差距的缩小则对财政支农支出的增加有显著的负面影响;这些因素能够解释财政支农支出变化率的83%。与1988年相比,2006年学者对增加财政支农支出的呼吁强度和三农代表的呼声都在降低,这影响了财政支农支出的增加。

Through empirical study, this paper finds that：the scholars＇ suggestions, the appeal of representatives of agriculture, rural area and peasant and the total fiscal expenditure have significant positive effects on the growth of agricultural fiscal expenditure,while the enhancement of per-capita grain yield and the reduction of urban-rural income gap have significant negative effects on it,and these factors can explain 83% of the growth of agricultural fiscal expenditure during 1988-2006. However,compared with the situation in 1988,the scholars＇ suggestions and the appeal of representatives of agriculture, rural area and peasant have decreased in 2006, which influences the growth of agricultural fiscal expenditure negatively.