运用灰色灾变理论对黄淮海流域旱情的长期预测

A LONG-TERM FORECAST OF THE DROUGHT SITUATIONS IN THE HUANG—HUAI—HAI RIVER VALLEYS IN CHINA BY USING GREY MUTATION THEORY

本文用灰色灾变理论对黄淮海流域地区的旱情进行了长期预测。12个预测模型中,经检验11个都达到了一级水平(GOOD)。预测结果表明:2000年前,1997年将是黄淮海流域地区最大的干旱年,不仅旱情重而且持续时间长;1990年春旱范围大,旱情将持续2—3个月;1993年春夏连旱;1998年为夏秋连旱。

In this paper,the grey mutation theory is used to carry out the long-term forecast of drought situation in the Huang-Huai-Hai river vallyes. Out of 12,there are 11 forecast models reaching GOOD level through testing.The forecasting results show that before the year 2000,1997 will be the most severe drought year with not only severe drought damage but also long drought period. In 1990, the spring drought will influence the most areas and last 2-3 months;and then spring to summer droughts and summuer to fall droughts will occur in 1993 and 1998 respectively.