后危机时期全球汇率格局的调整

Adjustment of global exchange rate structure in post-crisis period

本轮国际金融危机使金融市场避险情绪主导了全球汇率的格局,而经济基本面的作用明显减弱。在后危机的中期,随着全球信心恢复、金融监管加强和全球失衡程度的减轻,全球汇率将更多地由经济基本面决定。根据中期全球经常账户的格局预测,美元实际有效汇率将中幅贬值,欧元小幅贬值,亚洲及中东货币升值,中东欧货币变化不大。

During the international financial crisis, risk aversion behavior became a leading factor determining the global exchange rate structure in the market, while the role of economic fundamentals was significantly weakened. With the recovery of global confidence, enhancement of financial supervision and rebalance of the global economy in the midst of the post-crisis period, global exchange rates will mostly depend on economic fundamentals. According to the global structure of current accounts in this middle period, it is predicted that the real effective USD exchange rate will depreciate to a medium extent, EUR will depreciate to a small extent, currencies in Asia and the Middle East will appreciate, and currencies in Central ＆ Eastern Europe will remain stable.