拉普拉斯早期概率思想的发展

On the Study of the Developing of Laplace's Early Thought on Probability

众所周知,《分析概率论》是十九世纪初法国数学家拉普拉斯关于概率论的集大成之作,也是他本人的概率思想和方法的成熟巅峰之作。然而对于数学历史的研究,仅仅了解一个数学家的成熟作品是远远不够的。拉普拉斯的概率思想的发展、他研究概率论的动机和动力、他的灵感的源泉等因素更多地反映在成熟作品之前的一些不太为人们所知的论文中。

This paper gives an overview of the study on Laplace's early works on probability according to his some papers published before his famous 'Théorie analytique des probabilities' in the 19th century.Such study is necessary for the history of probability,because many important factors would be reflected in his early papers which were unknown by most people,such as Laplace's motivation,his headspring of inspiration and the developing of Laplace's probability from primary thought to mature period.And also some of publishing details on these papers revealed the course that Laplace became an academic authority from an unknown young man.