全球气候变化下宝鸡地区的响应

Global climate change response of Baoji area

54 a来宝鸡市气温在波动中呈现出上升趋势,气温升高主要发生在20世纪90年代及以后;20世纪90年代气温变率最大,80年代最小。从季节分配来看,四季气温均有升高,但以春季增温最为明显。冬季气温的变化在20世纪80年代发生了较大变化,此后一直持续在0.7℃左右;降水量在波动中呈下降趋势,多雨主要发生在20世纪50、80年代,少雨期主要集中在70和90年代。降水变率在2000年后最大,20世纪70年代最小。从季节分配来看,夏季、春季降水量均呈减少趋势,冬季降水量则呈现增加的趋势。秋季降水变率最大。这对于以夏、秋季降雨为主的宝鸡市来说,是一个值得关注的问题;对降水量、气温进行相关分析,发现年总降水量与年平均气温以及春季、夏季、秋季降水量与气温均呈负相关。冬季降水量与气温呈正相关。二者之间均表现出显著线性相关,且通过了a=0.05显著性水平检验;近期宝鸡有向暖干化发展的趋势。

Based on the observed data of precipitation and temperature from 1951 to 2005 in Baoji city, the climate change characteristics were analyzed. The temperature of Baoji city had an increasing trend with fluctuation , temperature increasing mainly took place after .1990＇s. The largest rate of temperature change occurred in the minimum in of 80 ＇s. Temperatures increased in four seasons, but the most obvious warming occurred in the spring. Winter temperature change occurred in the 80＂s. The precipitation of Baoji city had a decreasing trend with fluctuation. The rainy increase occurred in 50＇s and 80＇s, drier period in 70＇s and 90＇s. Variability of precipitation in the maximum occurred after 2000, minimum in of 70＇s. The spring and summer precipitations were to reduce, the trend of winter precipitation was showing an increasing trend. Autumn rainfall varied mostly. The test with SPSS software revealed that annual precipitation and the spring, summer, autumn rainfall and temperature were negatively correlated. Winter precipitation and temperature was positively correlated. Between the two showed a significant linear correlation. The trend of climate change in Baoji city was becoming wanner and drier.