太白山国家森林公园旅游地生命周期分析与调控

Analysis and control of tourist area life cycle of Taibai Mountain National Forest Park

依据太白山国家森林公园近几年客流变化,运用直线趋势预测模型和戈珀兹趋势预测模型对未来五年游客人数进行预测,界定太白山国家森林公园的生命周期正处于发展阶段与巩固阶段的过渡期。在调查统计的基础上,提出景区应做好生态环境保护,通过调整旅游产品、加强区域旅游合作、提高服务质量,从而延长太白山国家森林公园生命周期的发展阶段和巩固阶段,以期实现旅游可持续发展。

Based on the changes of the tourist number in recent years, the tourist number in future was forecasted through two tendency model, and the Taibai Mountain National Forest Park was defined in the transition stage of development and consolidation in tourism area life cycle. In order to achieve the tourism sustainable development and extend the stage of development and consolidation, the ecological environment of the scenic spots should be protected, tourism products should be adjusted, the regional cooperation be strengthed and the services quality be improved.