美国金融泡沫“雪崩式”破灭机理分析

An Analysis of "Avalanche" Burst Mechanism of American Financial Bubble

经济泡沫是不可能持久的,必定要破灭。美国的这次金融泡沫为何不是缓慢释放,而是瞬间剧烈的破灭,其内在的机理是美国的虚拟经济过分膨胀,也与金融衍生品及金融市场的特点有关。从美国金融市场及衍生品的特点来看,由于风险资产分布的非均质性及转移粘性、金融衍生品间的价值与风险的联动性、衍生品市场的弱有效性及脆弱性等因素,因而使得这种价格向价值的回归非常剧烈,进而触发严重的金融危机。

Economic bubble is doomed to burst, i.e. the American financial bubble does not release slowly but bursts suddenly and violently this time. Its inherent mechanism is that American virtual economy expands excessively, meanwhile it is related to the character- istics of financial derivatives and financial market. According to the characteristics, the regression from price to value is very fierce, which triggers serious financial crisis, due to the heterogeneity of risk asset distribution and viscosity of transfer, linkage of value and risk among financial derivatives, and the weak effectiveness and vulnerability of derivative market.