智能体模型在微观土地利用行为模拟中的应用及启示

Developments and Enlightenments on Simulation of Land Use Micro Behaviors Based on Agent-Based Models

分析智能体模型在国内外微观土地利用行为模拟中的研究现状,指出研究中主要存在行为人行为规则简单、模型定量化方法单一、实证模型解释力不强等不足,提出进一步改进的方向和建议:在研究内容上应加强行为人决策机制研究;在研究区域上应加强农业土地利用变化及相关政策分析研究;在研究方法上应综合集成多学科相关研究成果。

On the viewpoint of geographical research and based on the methods of documentation and comparative analysis, the studies of agent-based models in micro simulation of land use behaviors are reviewed in order to set up a guideline system for China. At the present time, researchers focus on the following four aspects, which are the agent decision-making, the agent inter- action,the model verification and validation,and the model multi-scale analysis. The results indicate that ABMs are particularly well suited for representing complex spatial interactions under heterogeneous conditions and for modeling decentralized,autono- mous decision making. It is concluded that the main limitations of empirical research at the present time are lack of fine scale da- ta to set up rules for agentsr behaviors and interactions,and how to validate ABMs and realize scaling are very important issues in the future research. Some directions and suggestions on how to improve the explanatory power of empirical model are provided in terms of the research contents,fields and methods in the end.