2002～2006年全国法定报告传染病发病率的灰色关联分析

The Grey Relational Analysis of Incidence of Notifiable Infectious Disease in China from 2002 to 2006

[目的]了解2002-2006年全国甲乙类法定报告传染病的发病率情况,应用灰色关联分析探讨影响总发病率的主要传染病病种。[方法]利用中华人民共和国卫生部公布的历年中国卫生统计提要中关于法定报告传染病的数据,采用灰色关联分析计算关联度,并按关联度进行排序。[结果]在2002-2006年中,病毒性肝炎发病率曲线与甲乙类法定传染病总发病率曲线的发展态势最接近,淋病、麻疹、疟疾、猩红热和痢疾这些传染病发病率曲线与总发病率曲线的发展态势较接近。[结论]对与总发病率关联度较大的病种进行系统管理,在实际工作中除了以发病率等指标作为决策依据外,建议引入灰色关联度分析进行系统分析、科学决策。

[Objective]To get message of the incidence rate of notifiable infectious disease in China from 2002 to 2006, and to explore the chief infectious disease that influence the total incidence rate by use of grey relational analysis. [Methods]With the data of notifiable infectious disease from health statistics summary that published by the Ministry of Health of the People＇s Republic of China,the grey relational grade was calculated and the disease by the grade was sorted, [Results]From 2002 to 2006 ,the status of the viral hepatitis incidence curve was the most similar to that of total incidence of class A and class B infectious diseases, the status of the curve of gonorrhea, measles,malaria, scarlet fever and dysentery were more similar to that of total incidence rate. [Conclusion]Systematic management of the infectious disease of greater grey grade must be conducted; ,grey relational analysis to systematic analysis was suggested and, beside the basis of the index such as incidence rate.