2009年初江苏省干旱过程对小麦产量的影响分析

Analysis on the Impact of Drought Process in Early 2009 on Wheat Yield in Jiangsu Province

[目的]分析干旱过程可能对小麦产量产生的影响。[方法]通过计算气候倾向率和潜在蒸散量分析江苏省各站的年降水趋势及干旱相似年份的蒸散情况。[结果]2008年11月1日至2009年2月7日，降水最少的是徐州、连云港、宿迁和淮安市，徐州市部分站点的降水量不足20mm。1961～2008年，江苏省东北部的降水量逐渐减少，西南部降水略有增长。淮北地区大部分站点的年降水倾向率为负值，其中最显著的地区是邳州和盐城。江苏省历史上灾情严重的5次干旱过程分别出现在1973年10月～1974年1月上旬、1978年3月～1979年6月、1983年12月～1984年4月、1987年12月～1988年7月上旬、1995年10月～1996年3月。2008年11月～2009年2月上中旬，江苏省淮北地区的逐月蒸散量不大。[结论]预计2009年初的干旱过程对小麦产量的负面影响较小。

[ Objective] The study aimed to analyze the possible impact caused by drough process on wheat yield. [ Method] The annual precipitation trend and field evapotranspiration in similar drought years of all the stations in Jiangsu Province were analyzed through calculating climate tendency rates and potential evapotranspiration amounts. [Result] From Nov. 1st, 2008 to Feb. 7th, 2009, the precipitation was least in Xuzhou, Lianyungang, Suqian and Huaian and the precipitation amounts of some stations in Xuzhou City were less than 20 mm. From 1961 to 2008, the precipitation amount in the northeast of Jiangsu Province was reduced gradually and that in the southwest was increased a little. The annual precipitation tendency rates of most stations in Huaibei district were negative and that in Pizhou and Yaneheng were most significant. The 5 drought processes with serious disaster situation in Jiangsu Province in history occurred in the periods from Oct. 1973 to Jan. 1974, from Mar. 1978 to Jun. 1979, from Dee： 1983 to Apr. 1984, from Dee. 1987 to early Jul. 1988 and from Oct. 1995 to Mar. 1996 re- sp. From Nov. 2008 to the early of middle Feb. 2009, the monthly evapotranspiration amount of Huaibei district in Jiangsu Province was little. [ Conclusion] It was predicted that the drought process in early 2009 had qiute little negative impact on wheat yield.