基于指标体系的福建省水资源供需趋势评价

Evaluation on Supply-demand Balance Trend of Water Resource in Fujian Province Based on Index System

[目的]评价福建省水资源的供需趋势。[方法]根据水资源供需平衡（Water Resources Supplyand Demand Balance，WRSDB）内涵，构建了福建省WRSDB评价指标体系。依据1997～2007年福建省各类统计资料建立指标数据库。采用情景分析法和回归分析法对各指标变量进行预测，采用加权求和法评价丰、平、枯水年福建省WRSDB趋势。[结果]同方案同水平年的WRSDB指数均为基准年2006年〉短期预测年2010年〉中期预测年2015年。各方案中WRSDB均呈略降趋势，下降程度表现为枯水年〉平水年〉丰水年。同水平年的各预测年WRSDB指数均表现为：高方案〉低方案。[结论]福建省水资源对社会经济发展的制约作用加强，近期福建省WRS—DB增强的关键在于控制人口和GDP的增速。

[ Objective] The study is to evaluate the supply-demand balance trend of water resource in Fujian Province. [ Method] According to the connotation of WRSDB, the evaluation index system of WRSDB （ Water Resources Supply and Demand Balance, WRSDB） in Fujian Province was established. The index database is set up according to all kinds of statistical data in Fujian Province from 1997 to 2007. The index variables is predicted with scenario analysis and regression analysis method. The WRSDB trend of Fujian in wet, normal and dry years is evaluated with weight sum method. [ Result] The WRSDB index in the same scheme and the same level year all showed base year 2006 〉 short-term prediction year 2010 〉 medium-term prediction year 2015. The WRSDB in schemes all showed decreasing trend, and showed as dry year 〉 normal year 〉 wet year. The predicted WRSDB indexes in the same level year in observed years in high scheme are bigger than those in low scheme. [.Conclusion ] The restricting effects of water resource on social and economic development are strengthening, the key of strengthening WRSDB of Fujian Province is to control the increasing speed of population and GDP.