珠江口两岸耕地变化驱动机制分析

Drive Mechanism Analysis of Cultivated Land Change in Coastal Area of Pearl River Estuary

利用1988—2004年耕地及相关的统计和普查数据，应用主成分分析法诊断影响耕地动态变化的主要驱动因子，揭示了耕地变化的人文驱动机制。在此基础上，应用多元回归分析法分析耕地与驱动因子之间的综合定量规律。分析耕地的驱动机制，对今后合理利用耕地资源、控制耕地进一步减少、保持耕地动态平衡具有重要意义。

According to the statistics and detailed-investigation data of cultivated land from 1988 to 2004, the mechanism of driving forces for change in the cultivated land areas were dealt with by Principal Component Analysis, and human driving forces of cultivated land changes were revealed. Comprehensive quantitative law of cultivated land and driving forces were applied on the basis of this. Analysis of cultivated driving mechanism, which had an important significance for rational utilization of cultivated land, controlling the decreasement of cultivated land and maintaining homeostasis of cultivated land.