外来入侵植物飞机草在中国的适生区预测

Predicting potential geographic distribution of Eupatorium odoratum in China

飞机草是我国首批外来入侵物种之一。通过阈值依赖和非阈值依赖对MAXENT和Desktop GARP的预测结果进行比较,MAXENT预测结果较好,因此采用MAXENT对飞机草进行适生区预测,结果显示,飞机草在中国的适生区主要集中于南方的海南、台湾、云南、贵州、广西、广东、福建等省,其中云南北部、贵州西南部、广西中东部、广东北部及东部、福建南部将是开展飞机草监测及预警工作的重点区域。

Eupatorium odoratum is one of the first batch of alien invasive species in China. Compared with the prediction results of Desktop GARP by both of threshold-dependent and threshold-independent evaluations, the MAXENT gives a better prediction than that of GARP. So MAXENT was used to predict the potential geographic distribution of E. odoratum in China. The results showed that the potential geographic distribution of E. odoratum is expected to be constricted within south China, such as Hainan, Taiwan, Yunnan, Guizhou, Guangxi, Guangdong and Fujian provinces, but northern Yunnan, southwestern Guizhou, central and eastern Guangxi, northern and eastern Guangdong and southern Fujian are the key areas for monitoring and early warning.