塔里木河流域产业结构经济效益比较研究

Comparison of the regional industrial structure benefit of the Tarim River Basin

应用偏离-份额分析方法,对塔里木河流域的5个地区1980-2005年的产业结构的变化进行比较分析,提取了各地区在产业结构效益和竞争力效益方面的优劣势信息,研究结果显示:塔里木河流域经济增长的拉动作用是各区产业增长的主要因素。巴音郭楞蒙古自治州属于绝对优势区,阿克苏地区和喀什地区属于相对优势区,克孜勒苏柯尔克孜自治州属于相对劣势区,和田地区属于绝对劣势区;重点分析了2000-2005年产业结构内部对地区经济增长的影响:塔里木河流域产业结构总体二三产业发展较快,第一产业发展较慢;三次产业均扩张的有巴州和克州;第二、三产业相对扩张的地区有喀什地区;第三产业处于相对扩张而第一、二产业处于相对收缩的地区是和田地区;三次产业均处于收缩状态的是阿克苏地区,并剖析了其影响因素。针对两种影响因素构成空间的组合方式,从产业结构角度提出推进塔里木河流域区域经济增长的建议。

The state of industrial structure always is the focus of industrial economic study. The model of Shift - Share Method was used to assess influence caused by evolvement of industrial structure on economic increasing. With the SSM, the paper analyzed that the history and actuality of the Tarim River Basin＇ s industrial structure benefit since 1980. The result shows that the development of the whole Tarim River basin is the main factors of economy increasing. Bayingolin Mongolia Autonomous Prefecture has the predominance utterly. Kizilsu Kirgiz Autonomous Prefecture has the inferiority comparatively. Kashi and Aksu Prefecture have the predominance comparatively. Hotan Prefecture has the inferiority utterly. Then the influence of the existing industrial structure on the economic growth of the individual prefecture is further analyzed. In Bayingolin Mongolia Autonomous Prefecture and Kizilsu Kirgiz Autonomous Prefecture, the structural factors and competitive factors are positives; in Kashi, Aksu and Hotan, the structural factors and competitive factors are negative. Finally, from the angle of industrial structure, some proposals are put forward for promoting the regional economic growth of the Tarim River Basin.