石油操作成本预测实证研究

CASE STUDY OF OIL OPERATION COST FORECAST

石油与天然气作为战略物资，对一个国家的政治经济、甚至国家安全都具有非常重要的作用。面临国际金融危机的挑战，坚定地实施低成本战略、提高国际竞争力是中国石油企业摆脱困境的有效途径。基于传统成本预测形成的成本预算造成不同油藏区块间操作成本预算缺乏可比性，针对油气企业生产操作成本与油气资源物理化学特性、油气勘探、开发、生产之间特殊的联系，提出石油操作成本预测一体化理念。利用油藏区块地质、生产、财务等经验数据对其进行检验，并构建操作成本预测的计量经济学模型。实证结果表明，石油操作成本成因及规模大小由油藏地质、勘探、开发、生产、集输各阶段特性共同决定，基于石油操作成本一体化理念的成本预测模型具有较强的稳定性与准确性。

As a kind of strategic resources, petroleum has a very important role in a country＇s politics and economy, especially in national security. Facing the challenge of global financial crisis, for Chinese petroleum producing companies, it is an effective way for them to get rid of difficult position that the companies implement low - cost strategy firmly and enhance international competitiveness in the end. In view of the comparison shortage of different reservoir blocks in operation cost budget resulted from traditional cost prediction and furthermore the special connections among the above cost, petroleum physicochemical properties, exploration, development and production, the paper has put forward the integrative theory of operation cost forecast. With the help of the empirical data such as blocks＇ geology, operation, financial and so on, the above thought has been verified. And moreover the econometrical model for operation cost forecast has been established. The results show that the genesis and size of petroleum operation cost are commonly determined by the characteristics of reservoir geology, exploration, development, production and gatherings. The operation cost forecasting model based on integrative theory possesses stronger stability and accuracy.