我国出口与人力资本积累的动态关系——基于VAR模型的研究

A VAR Model on Export and China's Human Capital Accumulation

出口贸易对人力资本积累的影响将决定一国的长期经济增长。本文根据我国1980—2006年的数据对出口和人力资本积累进行了实证分析,通过向量自回归模型对我国出口和人力资本积累进行了协整分析,并通过脉冲响应函数分析了两者的动态关系。本文的研究发现,出口贸易在短期内有利于人力资本积累,但在长期内不利于人力资本积累。

The influence of export on human capital accumulation will determine long economic growth. This paper used 1980 -2006 annual time series data , constructed a vector autoregressive model to test the long - run equilibrium relationship between export and China＇s human capital accumulation, then checked their dynamic relations by employing the impulse response function. We find export is benefit for human capital accumulation in the short run , but it is harmful for human capital accumulation in the long run.