摘要
产品使用过程中的变点分析是现场可靠性数据处理时的重要问题,对制定产品维修策略及确定产品报废期具有重要的意义.研究了产品使用可靠性的变点问题,建立了机械类产品的使用可靠性变点模型,给出了变点的检验和估计方法,特别是采用Bayes方法对变点后的可靠性指标进行估计,以提高产品可靠性评估精度.数值模拟表明Bayes方法具有较好的小样本性质,适用于现场可靠性数据的变点分析.
Change - point problem is a important part of reliability evaluation. The paper introduces the method of change - pointg estimation. Especially by using Bayes method, Bayesian estimations of failure probabilities are received and the estimation of reliability target is given. Finally a calculation of a practical problem is illustrated which validates the stability of the method.
出处
《湖北师范学院学报(自然科学版)》
2009年第3期55-59,共5页
Journal of Hubei Normal University(Natural Science)
关键词
变点
BAYES方法
先验分布
假设检验
估计
change - point
Bayesian method
priori distribution
hypothesis inspection
estimation