需求不确定下物流企业采用新技术的策略选择分析

Analysis on Strategy Choice of New Technologies Adopted in Logistics Enterprises under Demand Uncertainty

运用实物期权的分析方法,分析了需求不确定条件下物流企业采用新技术的决策机理,得到了物流企业采用新技术的需求规模门槛值。结果表明:考虑企业决策柔性使得企业采用新技术的门槛值增大,不利于物流企业采用新技术。同时,对影响该门槛值的各因素进行了进一步的分析研究,认为政府的引导、物流服务供需双方企业间的战略联盟关系,都将促进我国物流企业采用新技术,进而促进物流企业和物流产业的发展。

The method of real options was used to analyze the mechanism of decision-making on adoption of new technology under demand uncertainty in logistics enterprises, the threshold of demand size was then gained. The result shows that considering flexibility of decision-making will increase the threshold on adoption of new technology and this is unfavorable for the adoption of new technology in logistics enterprises. At the same time, the factors influencing the threshold were further analvzed. The adoption of new technology depends on the government guidance and strategic alliance relationship between logistics service supplier and demander to promote Chinese logistics enterprises and logistics industry improvement accordingly.