国民经济第三产业发展的GEP演化建模与预测

GEP-based Automatic Modeling and Prediction for the Third Industry of National Economy

提出了一种基于基因表达式编程的经济发展演化模型,在该演化模型中,给出了参数控制集、函数集和变量集,构造了相应的适应度函数,重新定义了遗传算子集,并对国民经济第三产业的发展进行了预测.实验结果表明,基于基因表达式编程的演化模型具有较好的预测精度与收敛速度,能够较好地应用于定量经济指标预测当中.

This paper presents a automatic economic development model based on gene expression programming （GEP）. In this model, parameter, function and variable set are defined, the corresponding fitness function is constructed and the operation set is redefined. The simulation on the third industry of national economy shows that, the GEP-based model could reach high prediction accuracy and convergence speed, and could be applied to economic performance prediction.