内蒙古典型草本植物春季物候变化及其对气候变暖的响应

Phenophase change of typical herbaceous plants in Inner Mongolia in spring and its response to climate warming

为了解气候和物候变化规律,指导农业生产和环境监测,用线性倾向估计法分析了1982—2006年内蒙古地区草本植物春季物候及其前期温度的变化趋势,并分区域分析了植物春季物候与温度的关系,通过逐步回归分别建立了中西部和东部地区植物始花期的温度回归模型,通过模型对未来气候变化情景下内蒙古地区草本植物始花期变化进行了预估。结果表明:20世纪80年代以来植物始花期变化为提前趋势,温度变化为增温趋势,春季变暖比冬季明显;温度和始花期的变化趋势均有明显的地域特征,中西部地区增温趋势和植物始花期提前趋势均大于东部地区,春季温度和植物始花期在两区域平均变化趋势均显著,冬季温度在中西部地区变化显著,而在东部地区变化不显著;植物始花期与其前期温度呈明显的负相关,春季温度是影响开花的主要因子,未来如温度上升1℃,始花期提早3.1～5.0d。

To understand the change patterns and the relationships between climate and phenophase is of significance in instructing agricultural production and environmental monitoring. This paper analyzed the change trends of the phenophase of herbaceous plants in different areas of Inner Mongolia in spring 1982-2006, and of the air temperature at the prophase of the plants. The models for predicting the first flowering date of herbaceous plants in mid-west and east Inner Mongolia were established, and the future changes in the first flowering date in the scenario of climate warming were evaluated. Since the 1980s, the first flowering date was advanced, air tem- perature was increasing, and climate warming was more evident in spring than in winter. The change trends of the first flowering date and air temperature had obvious regional characters. In the mid-west area of Inner Mongolia, the advance in the first flowering date and the increase of air temperature were more evident than those in the east area. The first flowering date and the air temperature in spring varied evidently in the two areas, and the variation of the air temperature in winter was more evident in the mid-west area than in the east area. The first flowering date was negatively related to the prophase air temperature, and the main affecting factor was the air temperature in spring. If the air temperature raised 1.0 ℃ in the future, the first flowering date would advance 3.1 to 5.0 days.