基于人工神经网络模型的关中地区用水量的预测

Forecast of Water Consumption in Guanzhong Region Based on Artificial Neural Network

未来用水量的预测对制定区域宏观经济发展规划、水资源规划以及水资源合理配置等具有重要的指导意义,为区域经济的可持续发展提供重要保障。在1986-2005年的用水量演变分析基础上,选取出城镇人口、灌溉面积、GDP、耕地面积、降水量和ET06个驱动力因素,建立了基于驱动力因子的用水量预测的人工神经网络BP模型,并对关中地区2006-2020年的用水量进行预测。

Water consumption forecasts for the future is of great guiding significance for the regional macro-economic development planning, water resources planning and rational distribution of water resources, it also provide an important safeguard for the sustainable development of regional economies. Based on the evolvement regulation of water consumption in Guanzhong region in the year of 1986 to 2005, six influencing factors, namely urban population, irrigation area, GDP, cultivated area, precipitation and ETo, are selected and an artificial neural network BP model for water consumption forecast is established. In the end, the water consumption in the year from 2010 to 2020 in Guanzhong region is forecasted.