社会养老保险危机预警警兆指标体系探讨

Probing into the Signal Index System about Social Pension Insurance Crisis Warning

由于社会养老保险危机产生的原因纷繁复杂,再加上社会养老保险危机预警理论研究的欠缺,在社会养老保险危机预警问题上存在着不少的理论上和实践上亟待解决的问题。而对社会养老保险危机预警警兆指标体系的研究更是亟须加强。首先运用问卷调查的方法对社会养老保险危机预警警兆指标体系进行了尝试性的构建;其次,根据已构建的社会养老保险危机预警警兆指标体系,对中国养老保险制度设计进行了预警分析,其中包括对统账模式养老金收支均衡预警分析、社会统筹养老金收支均衡预警分析、覆盖率高低的影响预警分析、遵缴率高低的影响预警分析、推迟退休效果的预警分析,等等;最后,对如何提高中国社会养老保险危机预警效率提出了可操作性的对策。

With the complicated reasons resulting in the social pension insurance crisis, and with the shortness of theories about this, many problems need be solved theoretically and practically. Especially, the signal index system about social pension insurance crisis warning should be paid attention to. First, this paper tries to construct the signal index system about social pension insurance crisis warning with the help of questionnaire way. Second, this paper analyzes the statue of the social pension insurance system in China according to the above. Third, the author contributes some suggestions to improve the efficiency of the social pension insurance crisis warning.