MASNUM海浪数值模式业务化预报与检验

Forecast Operation and Verification of MASNUM Surface Wave Numerical Model

介绍了MASNUM(Key Laboratory of Marine Science and Numerical Modeling)海浪数值预报系统,并利用全球和西北太平洋的Jason-1卫星数据和NDBC浮标数据中的海浪波高观测,对该预报系统进行了自2007年8月1日-2007年12月31日5个月的24,48和72 h预报结果的比较检验。模式校验结果表明,有效波高预报与观测的绝均差在0.5 m左右,从夏季到冬季,预报精度不断提高,与风场冬季预报精度较高吻合。

MASNUM surface-wave numerical forcast system is introduced, and the Jason-1 satellite data of the globe and the northwest Pacific Ocean and the measurements from National Data Buoy Centre （NDBC）are used to verify the 24, 48, 72 h forecast results from the system in the operational period from 1st August to 31st December 2007. It is shown from the verification that the mean absolute error （MAE） be-tween the forecast significant wave heights and the measured is about 0.5m.The forecast accuracy became better and better in the period from summer to winter 2007.The accuracy increasing can be attributed to the better forecast of the wind field in winter.