SGP4/SDP4模型精度分析

Analysis on the Accuracy of the SGP4/SDP4 Model

本文基于最新发布的SGP4/SDP4(Simplified General Perturbation Version 4/Simplified Deep-space Perturbation Version 4)模型设计了一套定轨方案,从空间目标库中挑选出不同类型和轨道参数的1120个目标进行计算,定量给出了SGP4/SDP4模型处理不同类型空间目标的定轨预报精度.结果表明:近地目标定轨精度为百米量级;半同步和同步轨道定轨精度平均为0.7和1.9km。椭圆轨道目标的定轨精度与偏心率有关,除少数e>0.8的椭圆轨道目标,绝大多数椭圆轨道目标定轨误差均小于10km。用SGP4/SDP4模型对近地目标预报3天,半同步轨道预报30天,同步轨道预报15天,椭圆轨道预报1天,预报误差一般不超过40km。

Based on SGP4/SDP4 model, a computer program to do the orbit determination is developed. 1120 space objects with different types and orbit parameters are selected from of the TLE catalogue and calculated. The orbit determination and prediction accuracy of different space objects using SGP4/SDP4 model are given. The result shows that： the orbit determination accuracy of the near-earth objects is several hundred meters. The orbit determination accuracy of semi-synchronous orbit and geosynchronous orbit are 0.7 km and 1.9 km, respectively. The orbit determination accuracy of the elliptical orbit is related to the eccentricity. Except for few objects with eccentricities larger than 0.8, most errors of orbit determinations for elliptical orbit objects are less than 10km. Using SGP4/SDP4 model, errors are less than 40km for the following cases： predicting the near-earth objects for 3 days, the semi-synchronous orbit for 30 days, the geosynchronous orbit for 15 days and the elliptical orbit for 1day.