动态网络中基于SIS模型疾病传播的建模与仿真研究

Modeling and Simulation of Disease Propagation Based on SIS model in Dynamical Networks

基于二维规则晶格,提出一个考虑个体运动的改进的SIS(Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible)传染模型来研究疾病在动态网络结构中的传播行为。利用平均场理论分析得到了改进的SIS模型的传染临界值,并通过大量的数值仿真加以验证。结果表明有效传播临界速率与晶格中群体密度密切相关,并且个体运动也会显著影响疾病传播行为。最后,基于分析和仿真的结果,提出一些可行的控制策略来抑制疾病在运动群体中的传播。

Based on two-dimensional （2D） regular lattice, an improved SIS epidemic model with individual＇s motion was presented to investigate the disease propagation in dynamical networks. The critical threshold of this new SIS model was acquired by the mean-field theory and verified by the large-scale numerical simulations. The results indicate that the effective critical propagation rate is closely related with the density of mobile individuals, and the motion also remarkably influences the epidemic spreading behavior At last, some feasible control strategies based on the analytical and simulation results were proposed to prevent from the epidemics within the moving populations.