基于贝叶斯网络的航班延误与波及分析模型

Model for Predicting Flight Delays and Analyzing Delay Propagation Based on Bayesian Networks

航班延误是各航空公司亟待解决的问题之一。提出了一种基于贝叶斯网络的航班延误预测与波及分析模型,该模型考虑了影响航班延误的相关因素,通过设定各因素的属性信息,可以对航班是否发生延误及其延误级别进行概率性预测,并且可以方便地对产生航班延误的原因进行定位,准确地分析航班延误产生的波及情况。实现了该模型,并以一个简单的航班计划为例验证了该模型的可行性。

Flight delay is a problem which most airlines encounter. A model for predicting flight delays based on Bayesian networks which could also analyze the flight delay propagation was proposed. The proposed model refers to factors associated with flight delays. By setting the attributes of these factors, the flight delay can be probability predicted, the reason for the delay can be easily found, and the flight delay propagation can be analyzed accurately at the same time. Finally, the feasibility of this model was verified by a simple airline schedule.