中国卫生总费用占国内生产总值比例的预测研究

A study on predicting the proportion of National Health expenditure(NHE) to Gross Domestic products (GDP)

本研究的目的是:预测到本世纪末中国卫生总费用(NHE)占国内生产总值(GDP)的比例,考核NHE/GDP能否达到国家提出的5％的发展目标,并据此提出政策建议。研究方法:利用1978～1995年卫生总费用占GDP比例的历史数据,采用ARIMA(0,0,2)模型进行拟和,在检验模型适用性的基础上预测1996～2000年NHE/GDP的比例。结果:ARIMA模型的预测结果提示到2000年NHE/GDP为4.29％,远低于5％的发展目标。结论:ARIMA模型适用于卫生总费用的预测,而且精度高;中国到本世纪末NHE/GDP达到5％的发展目标难度较大;今后应当对建立多种形式的健康保障制度和公共卫生工作加大投入力度。

The aim of this research is to predict whether the proportion of NHE to GDP can reach the goal of 5% set by our country and put forward our proposals for policy. With the data of the proportion of NHE to GDP in 1978-995 and the research method of ARIMA(0, 0, 2)model, we can predict the proportion of NHE to GDP during 1996-2000 on the basis of testing the model's applicability.The findings show that: the predicted value of NHE/GDP by ARIMA model is 4.29% , far lower than the goal of 5%. Our conclusion is that: ARIMA model is applicable to the prediction of NHE and it is of high precision, So reaching the goal——NHE/GDP to 5% by the end of this century is rather difficulty for our country, therefore, we should further our investment in various health security system and public health work.