金融危机前后中国纸产品出口变动研究

The Research of China’s Paper and Paperboard Export Changes before and after the Financial Crisis

金融危机前,中国纸产品出口呈快速增长趋势。结合恒定市场份额模型(CMS),分析得出中国出口增加主要因素是中国纸产品竞争力,市场规模的扩大对纸产品出口的正效应有所增强;市场分布存在不合理之处,阻碍出口。金融危机后,结合PMI采购经理指数,发现纸业受到了冲击,出现了一段时间的衰退;市场规模出现了萎缩,纸产品出口出现了下滑;市场需求结构出现了变化,东盟、南亚和中东等新兴市场有着巨大的市场潜力;企业要加强技术创新,进一步提高纸产品的国际竞争力,加快产品升级。

Before the financial crisis, the export trade of China＇s paper and paperhoard increases at a high speed. This paper uses the constant market share model and makes the conclusions that the increase of export competition plays the most important role in the augment export of China＇s paper and paperboard; the positive effect of market scale has increased in a certain; and the market distribution effect embarrasses the export. By the PMI, After the financial crisis, the paper industry appears recession; the market scale have decreased and the export volume gets down; the market need structure have changed and the ASEAN, South Asia and the Middle East become the huge potential paper need market; the companies should focus on the technological innovation and improve the paper international competitiveness further and upgrade the product.