进出口贸易与大连地区经济增长实证研究

Import and export trade and Dalian district economy growth demonstration research

本文选取1990～2006年度大连市统计数据,建立计量经济模型,在模型中加入进口、消费、投资等解释变量,利用协整检验和Granger因果检验对大连市进出口贸易和经济增长关系进行实证分析。实证结果表明大连市的经济增长与进口、出口、消费、投资之间存在着一种长期稳定的关系,进口、出口和投资明显促进了经济增长,而消费对经济增长的影响则并不显著。进、出口贸易与经济增长之间存在单向的因果关系。并在此基础上提出大连市经济发展的政策建议。

This paper conducts an empirical analysis and test on the relationahip between foreign trade and economic growth in Dalian city, by useing 1990-2006 annual statistics data.In the model, import, export , consumption, investment and other explained variables are added, and cointegration test and Granger causality test is adopted.The result of which shows that：there exists in Dalian city a long and stable relationship between economic growth and import,export,consumption and investment;import ＆ export and investmerit promote economic growth obviously while consumption not so much. There is one-way causal relationship between import and export trade and economic growth . Finally economic growth policy suggestions to Dalian are put forward according to the result.