关于我国货币理论的实证研究

Demonstrative research of China currency theory

本文通过建立向量自回归模型,采用协整研究、脉冲响应及格兰杰因果性检验等计量经济学方法,就国内生产总值、居民消费物价水平、名义利率和货币供给量之间的关系进行了实证检验。结果表明,在我国的经济条件下,上述因素之间并不存在长期稳定的均衡关系。通过差分变换,对M2增长率、GDP增长率、CPI及利率等变量进行实证研究,并得出它们之间的协整关系。

This paper through the creation of vector autoregressive model, using cointegration study, pass impulse response, such as Granger causality test econometric methods, on the gross domestic product, consumer price levels, nominal interest rates and currency supply of the relationship between empirically tested.The results showed that China s economic conditions, these factors do not exist between the longterm stability of the equilibrium relationship.Through the differential transformation, the M2 growth rate, GDP growth, CPI and interest rate variables ,such as empirical studies and concluded that their cointegration relationship.