摘要
SCGM(1,N)模型是灰色预测理论在传统GM(1,1)上的进一步发展。文章首次将单变量的SCGM(1,1)模型应用于中长期电力负荷预测,分别阐述了简化SCGM(1,1)模型、均值SCGMmv(1,1)模型、拓广SCGMa0(1,1)模型的原理和特点,并应用于实例。同时将精度较高的后两种模型和GM(1,1)模型进行固定权值和变权组合,进一步提高预测结果的精确度和可靠性。计算结果证明该方法预测准确,可靠性高,抗干扰性强,是中长期负荷预测新工具之一。
System cloud gray model SCGM（1,N） is a further development of gray prediction theory based on GM（1,1）. SCGM（1,1） model with single variance is applied to mid-long term power load forecast. The principle and properties of three models are discussed, including simplified SCGM（1,1）, average SCGMmv（1,1）, developed SCGMa0（1,1）. All three models are applied to actual problem. The last two SCGMs with better accuracy and GM（1,1） model are combined with both constant and variant weights to improve the accuracy and reliability of the forecast results. The computation result shows the accuracy, reliablility and robust of the proposed method. So this method can be used as a new mid-long term load forecast tool.
出处
《南方电网技术》
2009年第3期54-58,共5页
Southern Power System Technology
关键词
电力系统负荷预测
SCGM(1
1)模型
简化模型
均值模型
拓广模型
组合预测
变权
load forecasting of power system
SCGM（1,1） model
simplified model
average model
developed model
combined forecasting
variable weight
