政府支出对我国农村居民消费的动态影响研究

Research on the Dynamic Effect of Chinese Government Expenditure on Rural Residents Consumption

运用Granger因果关系检验和可变参数模型对我国1986年～2006年的政府支出和农村居民消费数据进行实证分析。结果表明：从动态来看，1986年～1992年政府支出对农村居民的消费产生挤出效应，1993年-2006年政府支出对农村居民的消费产生引致效应；从结构上看，政府财政支出的各个构成部分除个别年份对农村居民的消费有挤出效应外，大部分时段都体现为挤入效应。在金融危机背景下，政府应实施积极的财政政策，加大对农村的财政支出力度，以扩大农村居民的消费需求，开拓农村市场，拉动国内消费需求。

By using Granger＇ s causality test and variable-parameter model, we eonauctea an empirlcal analysis of the data about government expenditure and rural resident consumption between 1986 and 2006. The results show that, from a dynamic perspective, government expenditure had a crowding-out effect on the consumption of rural residents during these years between 1986 and 1992; whereas it had an introduction effect on it from 1993 to 2006; from the point of view of structure, except for the few cases of crowding-out effect some years, the various components of financial expenditure of the government on the whole had a crowding-in effect on the rural population＇ s consumption. In the context of financial crisis, the government should implement a proactive fiscal policy and increase the intensity of financial expenditure in rural areas to expand consumer demand of rural residents, ripen the rural market and stimulate domestic consumer demand.