用组合模型预测油田产油量

/ A COMBINED MODEL FOR PREDICTING OIL PRODUCTION IN OILFIELD/

时间序列分析是统计学的一个重要分支，灰色系统理论是一种动态趋势预测理论。将时间序列分析与灰色系统理论相结合用于油田产量预测是一个非常有益的探索。先采用灰色建模或逐步回归方法，从数据中得到趋势项的数学模型，然后对剔除趋势项之后的数据进行时间序列分析，建立了ＡＲ模型或ＡＲＭＡ模型。将以上两个模型结合起来构成组合模型，用于预测油田产油量。应用实例证明，该方法具有容易实现、预测准确的优点，是一种非常有效的预测方法。

Time series analysis is a branch of statistics and widely used in trend prediction. Grey system theory is mainly used for predicting dynamic trends. Combination of time series analysis and grey system theory can be applied to predicting oil production in oilfield. At first, grey model is used to abstract trends from original data, and then AR or ARMA models for time series analysis are made to analyze the data after subtracting the trends. The two kinds of mathematical models are combined to predict oil production. The examples show that the combined model is effective, precise and easy to be operated.