利用探索式空间数据解析北京城市空间经济发展模式

Identification of Spatial Economic Structure in Beijing by Applying Exploratory Spatial Data Statistics

城市经济空间结构是城市研究和城市规划基本内容之一。利用其探索式空间数据分析方法,根据1949-2004年企业登记就业数据在邮政区尺度上对北京市1949年以来城市空间经济发展进行了探讨。基于空间邻近矩阵和不同距离矩阵的Global Moran'sI和Local Moran'sI都表明解放后市区并没有明显的经济集聚,50多年来空间经济发展模式几乎都是以市区为核心集聚式发展;尽管郊区一些重要乡镇呈现出发展势头,但几乎没有和周边地区形成互动关系,而是和市中心或其它地区保持较强的联系。分析还表明,北京地区经济的空间相互作用在计划经济时代大体在60km以内,市场经济时代(1983-2002年)提高到75km。北京经济空间模式经历了以下6个阶段:①1957-1982年,中心集中发展;②1983-1987年,沿京津廊道空间组织;③1988-1992年,北部为主的城市中心发展;④1993-1997年,城市中心集中扩张模式;⑤1998-2002年,城市中心填充发展;⑥2002-2004年,出现了城市空心化结构态势,空间经济组织面临新一轮重组。

Spatial organization of economic activities is of great importance for urban studies and urban planning such as urban morphology and relevant urban developmental policies. Traditional studies however overlook the spatial dependency of economic activities, which leads to our knowledge constrained to the geographical or industrial concentration of a region less considering the inner structure of urban spatial economics. The aim of this paper is to explore the inner structure of urban economic activities for Beijing in the period of 1949-2004. With the indicator of gross employment increasing, the urban spatial-economic organization was investigated by means of exploratory spatial data analysis. Specifically, Local Moran＇s I was used to examine the increase of gross employment for local spatial associations on a postcode level with Rook Spatial Weights and different distance spatial weights. The result indicated, as the foundation for Beijing spatial-economics, there were no significant economic agglomeration areas in the urban center during 1949-1956. However, in the later 50 years, Beijing was gradually forming a mono-centric spatial organization with a huge nuclear anchored in the urban center. At the same time, some towns in the peri-urban area were developed as islands with less spatial-economic relations with their hinterlands. Instead, they kept a close economic linkage with the urban center or other regions. On the city level, the distance for spatial interactions of economic elements was within 60 km in the planned area to form hinterlands, and expanded to 75 km in 1983-2002 when market economy is oriented. After the revival period in 1949-1956, the evolution of Beijing spatial-economic organization experienced six stages： （l） 1957-1982, the urban center was rapidly developed; （2） 1983-1987, Beijing-Tianjin-Langfang became a major economic corridor; （3） 1988-1992, the north of the urban center was rapidly developed; （4） 1993-1997, the urban area spatially expanded; （5） 1998-2002, the urban center was infilled; （6） 2002-2004, perhaps decentralization took on ensuing with spatial restructuring.