FDI与安徽GDP增长关系的实证分析

Empirical Analysis on the Relationship between FDI and Anhui GDP Growth

基于新增长理论的基本原理,建立一个简单的安徽利用外资(FDI)与安徽国内生产总值(GDP)的模型,以安徽省数据为背景,运用时间序列的平衡性检验和协整检验、误差修正模型及格兰杰因果检验等方法,对两个变量之间的关系进行经验检验。结果表明,FDI是安徽GDP增长的Granger原因,FDI促进安徽GDP增长是显著的,而安徽经济发展对吸引外商直接投资的影响并不显著。因此,安徽省应加大招商引资的力度,促进经济的发展。

This paper establishes a model on the relationship between FDI and Anhui GDP growth. By using a sequence of Augmented Dickey-Fuller test and cointegration test, the error correction model and Granger causality tests for such econometric methods, based on data of Anhui, the paper tests the relationship between FDI and Anhui GDP growth. Results show that foreign direct investment promotes GDP growth significantly in Anhui, while Anhui economic development to attract foreign direct investment is not significant. Therefore, Anhui should enhance the attraction of foreign investment so as to promote the development of economy in Anhui.