外部需求冲击与中国投资波动——基于“冲击—传导”关联的实证分析

External Demand Shocks and China Investments Fluctuation:Empirical Study Based on the Connection of "Shocks-Transmission"

随着中国参与国际市场分工程度的加深,外部需求冲击与本国经济波动的关联已非净出口所能涵盖,投资已成为净出口之外传导外部需求冲击的重要路径。从因应外部需求冲击的角度对1997年以来中国投资波动进行结构分析,运用OLS回归与ARMA组合模型和Granger因果检验识别外部需求冲击传导的投资路径。结果表明,总投资中的出口引致性投资对于外部需求冲击的反应是敏感的,外部需求与政府预算内投资、外商直接投资以及自筹资金投资之间存在着"冲击—传导"关联。

With China＇s participation in the international market division, net exportation can＇t reflect the connection between external demand shocks and internal economy fluctuation fully. Investments become a significant path to transmit the eternal demand shocks besides net exportation. From the angle of investments fluctuation in accordance to the exterior demand change, this paper carries on structural analysis of investments fluctuation since 1997. Through the OLS regression and the ARMA combination model, with the Granger causality test, the external demand shocks＇ transmission path of investments is identified. The result indicates that of total investments brought by exportation response to the external demand shocks ＇sensitively. There exist the relations of ＂shocks -transmission＂ between the external demand and government budget investments, the foreign direct investments as well as self-providing funds investments.