上海市物质资本存量估算:1978～2007

The Estimation of Shanghai's capital stock:1978～2007

本文考察了当前较多采用的几种代表性的物质资本存量估算方法,讨论了基年资本存量、固定资产投资价格指数、当年投资以及折旧等物质资本存量估算四个基本变量的指标选取和计算。根据目前国内已有统计数据,采用不同方法具体估算和比较了上海改革开放开放30年间的总体物质资本存量及分三大产业的资本存量,发现上海总体资本存量、三大产业资本积累及资本-产出比的变动趋势,说明上海经济增长方式和产业结构的调整符合经济发展的一般规律。

This paper examined current representative methods of capital stock estimation, discussed the questions on how to choose and compute the four key variables before estimation, which are base year capital stock, price index of fixed assets investment, year investment and depreciation. According to the available statistical data, this paper applied different methods to estimate Shanghai＇s capital stock from 1978 to 2007, in which as a whole economy and as its three major industries. By comparing the results, findings indicate some dynamic trends within Shanghai＇s and its three major industries＇capital stocks, but also of their capital - output ratios. These findings imply that Shanghai＇s economic growth and its adjustments of the industries＇structure are in line with the general laws of economic development.